SILVER SPRING, Md. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on April 8, projecting an above-normal season with 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 12 of which are expected to become hurricanes, and 4 to 6 reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
The forecast reflects record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation pattern, which historically reduces the wind shear that inhibits hurricane development. NOAA meteorologists said both factors are expected to persist through the peak of the season in August and September.
The 2026 outlook is among the most aggressive NOAA has issued in its modern forecasting era. The agency noted that the combination of warm ocean temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions creates a highly favorable environment for storm development and intensification.
For restoration contractors, the forecast signals a need to review surge capacity plans, equipment inventories, and mutual aid agreements ahead of the season. FEMA has urged state emergency management agencies to accelerate pre-positioning of response resources.
The 2025 season produced 21 named storms and caused an estimated $85 billion in insured losses across the Gulf Coast and Atlantic seaboard. Industry analysts expect 2026 losses to exceed that figure if the forecast verifies.
NOAA will issue updated outlooks in August as the season approaches its peak. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1.
