SILVER SPRING, Md. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects an above-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 18 to 24 named storms, 8 to 12 hurricanes, and 4 to 6 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher intensity, according to NOAA's seasonal outlook released in May.
The above-normal forecast is driven primarily by record warm Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures, which provide the energy that fuels hurricane development and intensification. NOAA scientists note that sea surface temperatures in the main development region of the Atlantic are running 1.2 to 1.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average.
The absence of a significant El Niño pattern in the Pacific — which typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity through increased wind shear — is also contributing to the above-normal forecast. La Niña conditions, which favor Atlantic hurricane development, are expected to persist through the early part of the hurricane season.
NOAA's forecast represents a significant threat to the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Atlantic Seaboard, where several major hurricanes in recent years have caused tens of billions of dollars in damage. The agency urges residents and businesses in hurricane-prone areas to complete their preparedness planning before the June 1 official start of hurricane season.
Restoration contractors in hurricane-prone states are advised to review their equipment inventories, staffing plans, and mutual aid agreements before hurricane season begins. The Restoration Industry Association's disaster response network can help contractors connect with resources and personnel in the event of a major storm.
